Sunspot group #486, image credit SOHO

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Last update Nov. 06. 2003

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Synopsis/Updates, November 06, 01.00 UT:
Its all over for a while. Solar activity is expected to rapidly decline today as we farewell very flare active 486 rotating off disk over the south-western solar limb. There is a chance for a further isolated flare from behind the limb from 486 today. GOES background xray flux levels have already dropped to around B7. Solar region 484 is due back around 13 Nov, regions 486 and 488 around 18 Nov, assuming they dont decay on the solar backside transit. Solar wind speed had a declining trend over past 24 hours. A glancing blow shock arrival is possible next 24 hours from the extreme westlimb superflare (reported as as sauturated X17, now estimated as an X28 by US SEC) from departing 486. ACE EPAM low energy ion shock arrival precursor channels still have a high flux from recent activity, but may be showing a weak/slow upward trend late in the UT day, possibly hinting that a shock is enroute. The proton event associated with this westlimb flare remains in progress and is expected to end today.

Image: SOHO

X28 flare November 4th 2003 at 19:50 UT [Image: Lasco]


Space Weather Message Code: SUMX10
Serial Number: 5
Issue Time: 2003 Nov 04 2035 UTC

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X10
Begin Time: 2003 Nov 04 1929 UTC
Maximum Time: 2003 Nov 04 1953 UTC
End Time: 2003 Nov 04 2006 UTC
X-ray Class: X17.0
Optical Class: 3b
Location: S19W83

This event saturated the sensor for 11 minutes.

Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 204
Issue Time: 2003 Nov 04 1952 UTC

WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2003 Nov 04 2000 UTC
Valid To: 2003 Nov 05 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

A nice weeks summary :-).


The image below shows recent trends in solar wind speed and interplanetary magnetic field north/south direction.

              Solar Wind Trend diagram

This diagram indicates the i) solar wind speed and ii) strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) in a north/south direction. Higher solar wind speeds and strong south pointing (negative) IMF are associated with geomagnetic storms on earth. The red area on the image indicates an approximate region in which disturbed conditions might be expected.

Source: IPS Radio and Space Services - Australia .



X-ray Solar Flares
As of Nov. 5. 2300 UT

  Magnetic Forecast
Date Ap Conditions
6-hr max:  C1 1650 UT Nov05    
24-hr:  M4 1050 UT Nov05
Sunspot Number:  79
06 Nov.
06 Nov.
07 Nov.
Active/minor storm

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